Introduction: An avid Gamer��s take on Activision Blizzard
As a freshman college student who has been an active member of the video gaming community since 2009, I am more than excited to share my thoughts on Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ:ATVI) and what its recent catalyst on May 17th, the Call of Duty: Black Ops 4 (COD: BO4) game-play reveal, means for shareholders and/or other related parties. Having initially been captivated by playing popular first-person shooter games (Halo 3: ODST and Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2), I have been continuously observant of the environment in which they have developed in for the past nine years. The most acute observations, however, have been made with regards to the effect that social media platforms such as Twitter, YouTube, and Twitch have had and will continue to have on the commercial success of video games and their respective ��ecosystems�� for which game publishers are increasingly focused on crafting.
This article will serve to formulate predictions on how the features evinced by the game-play reveal of the game COD: BO4 on May 17th, 2018 will affect the commercial launch of the game itself. Specifically, these features will have an impact on the amount of purchases for the game during its release date on October 12th, 2018, as well as the users who engage in microtransactions��the purchase of additional virtual player customizations��because of it. Based on a sentiment analysis of the video gaming community, I will determine the degree and direction for which these impacts may be qualified by. The predictable sentiment that the gaming community will maintain towards COD: BO4 based on its recent game-play reveal will have an effect on the game��s reception come its release October 12th, 2018. In turn, this will portend the quantity of future revenues and the direction of Activision��s share price.
Call of Duty Development Process
Call of Duty has been the #1 top grossing console gaming franchise in North America for a staggering nine years in a row, and worldwide eight out of the last nine years.
Call of Duty (COD) is a gaming franchise and each iteration of it, in the form of an additional game, is published every year by Activision. However, there are three different video game developers, nominally, Treyarch, Infinity Ward, and Sledgehammer who distinguish their creation of each yearly COD release based on their particular aptitudes or the features that they are known for developing well. The three COD video game developers alternate in developing each year��s continuation of the COD franchise in a predictable manner based on which developer least recently spent their labor-power on developing one of the past three COD releases: the COD franchise operates in three-year cycles which experience each developers�� version of the game. This year��s COD developing obligations have been bestowed upon video game developer Treyarch. Treyarch��s goodwill comes in the form of the particular features most coveted by users (Zombies mode, weapon caches, map design, virtual player customization) which Treyarch��s aptitude for developing them is greater than the other two developers. This paradigm is reflected in the largely demanded ��Black Ops�� theme attached to this year COD franchise. (The ��Black Ops�� brand should not be overlooked and it will be useful in understanding arguments which support Activision��s position in the video game market irrespective of the features that the COD��s game-play reveal has displayed).
Additionally, each COD version is given a date for the ��game-play reveal��, in which members at both the nexus and fringe of the gaming community gawk or scorn at the newly released visuals and/or conceptual dynamics of the game. What follows is a period, historically 5-6 months, in which the game is publicized until its official date at which time the consumer may begin to play it. As mentioned previously, the revenue incurred by video game publishers such as Activision doesn��t stop at per-unit sales. ��Microtransactions�� in which users pay for either single player or multiplayer customizations towards an in-game experience, contribute significantly to operating revenues. This is a crucial observation illustrative of our conviction in the growth of Activision as an economic actor within the video gaming industry. The player retention and origination that I foresee Call of Duty: Black Ops 4 producing will indicate disproportionate growth between ��in-game�� microtransactions and any increase in individual COD game sales as to comprise a greater part of Activision��s revenues. I will begin by addressing the theoretical "free-to-play" model (FTP) which is exercised by video games like ��Fortnite�� who rely upon microtransactions as their sole source of revenue: as it remains a most likely progression in the evolution of video game business economics. After such, I will return to why Activision��s most recent game-play reveal will benefit from such a hypothesis.
Fortnite Anecdote (Transforming EBITDA Producing Dynamics)
Fortnite has taken over the video game industry the past 8 months as its FTP model across numerous platforms (PC, XB1, PS4, Mobile) has given everyone that wishes to play the game the ability to do so in whatever hardware form. Fortnite creators and all other parties involved subsumed a ��game as a service�� business model. They opted to monetize their content after the game��s official release of its FTP interface and in doing so stomached an immense risk by having an unassured amount of per unit game sales to remotely recoup game development and S&M expenses. However, this wager has paid off as Fortnite has become the most played and viewed video game at the moment, recording $296 million in revenue for the month of April alone. Fortnite��s recent form of success is amusingly indicative of the video game sector��s increasingly profound transition to rely upon microtransactions from per unit product sales as means to bolster their operating revenue
Released Images, Features Hypothesis, Sentiment Analysis
As previously mentioned, I will review the released features of COD: BO4 vis-�-vis video streams from the game-play reveal on May 17th and the sentiment or speculation that surrounds what they mean for the game. Each heading which alludes to either a feature or which impacts customers�� expectations and the significance of the game itself as it has been revealed, will be categorized as either positive, negative, or neutral, or a combination thereof, with respect to Activision��s price per share prospects.
��Boots on the Ground�� Theme
The upcoming COD game will take place in a setting commonly known as ��boots on the ground��. A ��boots on the ground�� theme is characterized by virtual players�� inability to leave the ground without aid from a contemporary air vehicle. It is suggestive of a ��modern�� setting which would exclude futuristic themes, such as those allowing for jetpack-related functions which have been previously adopted by some of the franchise��s other versions. Additionally, this version��s game-play reveal has added special character abilities, or ��specialists�� to the game. These features are unique abilities that can be expended and regenerated on the basis of a ��cool-down�� timer: once one uses a ��special�� ability they might have to wait for a few minutes before they can use it again. This is precisely what the general COD community has expressed desired for these past few quarters. (Moderate Positive)
Semblance to Call of Duty: Black Ops 3 (COD: BO3)
COD: BO3 has been a commercially successful version of the COD franchise and the most played ��advanced movement�� COD game so far. (Advanced movement is a movement style from the COD franchise that includes the use of some technology to enhance a player's mobility by either giving them the ability to boost in the air with the aid of jetpacks or enabled by bionic legs to run along a wall for an extended amount of time.) However, this similarity may be concerning if it is perceived to be too concertedly so. Within reason, players may feel that Treyarch and by extension Activision have gone a more banal route and settled for a version of COD that will avoid commercial failure but creative success as well. The gaming community for which appreciates creative liberty will likely eschew from sustaining the newest version��s monthly active user (MAU) longevity in this event but will purchase it nonetheless (Light Negative/Neutral)
Source: Statista.com
Exclusion of Campaign Mode
COD: BO4 will not feature a campaign or ��story�� mode. However, Treyarch has included small character stories and solo-challenges in order for the COD lore to continue in this year��s version. I don��t believe that cutting the campaign will have much of an effect. The COD franchise maintains a dedicated player base which ascribes an inelastic price elasticity of demand to its products. Additionally, the nature of COD games as multiplayer ones, with approximately 90% of players who are multiplayers (according to Treyarch Co-Studio Head Dan Bunting), diminishes most if not all of any potential leftward demand movement for the game due to its lacking a campaign mode. Treyarch has been able to utilize the time freed up in potentially developing a campaign mode to refine multiplayer action and in vogue video game features such as ��Zombies�� and ��Battle Royale�� modes. (Light positive)
Zombies Mode
A Zombies mode will be included. Activision has released multiple ��Zombie�� trailers as cinematic featurettes on the Call of Duty YouTube channel. These clips have received excellent reception from the video gaming community to further buttress Treyarch��s reputation for developing the most nuanced Zombies mode. (Strong Positive)
Source: Youtube (Famous Youtuber "TheRelaxingEnd" receives excellent video consumer metrics in content related to the Zombie mode within COD: BO3)
Battle Royale Mode Invention
COD: BO4��s newly created ��Battle Royale�� mode has been called ��Blackout��. According to Treyarch, the feature will be 1500x larger than the size of the map of Nuketown: a fan favorite setting that has appeared in every Black Ops title. The mode will allow for interaction with land, air, and sea vehicles as well. The video gaming community has reacted positively to this addition as a practicable result of recent clamor for the mode among games like ��Fortnite��. In addition, COD video gamers may now be able to play with their favorite characters, weapons, and equipment as the entire cache of the ��Black Ops�� series is accessible. However, Treyarch has not yet announced how many players may simultaneously play in the arena nor have they released Battle Royale oriented game-play besides cinematic clips. Although video game pundits cite ��100�� as the optimal number of players that should exist in a Battle Royale arena simultaneously, Treyarch has admitted that they will continue adjusting the settings until they have decided on a propitious outcome. A Battle Royale mode for COD: BO4 will be majorly responsible for this version��s magnitude of recurrent spending in the form of microtransactions. (Moderate Positive)
Source: Youtube (Youtuber Drift0r has calculated the immense scale of the COD: BO4 map which can be compared to relatively vast landscapes like Fortnite's map)
Qualitative Conclusions (COD: BO4��s place within shifting Business Economics)
The May 17th game-play reveal for COD: BO4 has demonstrated a classic-style COD game boasting a modern (contemporary or historical) setting whose characters are constricted to ��boots on the ground�� as well as a fine-tune Zombies mode and added Battle Royale feature which were made possible in the realization of a diminished or excluded campaign mode. The attention to detail, diverse range of playstyles, and Treyarch��s video game development prowess which reinforces the lauded ��Black Ops�� series brand has been given expression by the revealed game-play features. And it satiates, to more of an extent, than previous COD versions, what the COD and video gaming community at large has desired. Cinematic clips as supposed to unreleased game-play for the Battle Royale mode provide enough evidence for my prognostication of its successful reception come the game��s release October 12th, 2018. Additionally, the rapport with the video gaming community and the commercial success the release of COD: BO4 will secure is effectively aligned with the transforming business economics of video game publishing. As video game unit sales begin to dwindle as a percentage of Activsion��s total revenue, microtransactions within a given game franchise��s ecosystem has begun to proliferate and will do so to greater effect in the release of COD:BO4.
Driving Assumption behind Activision��s Secular Growth
I expect Black Ops 4 to sell over 20 million copies as the Black Ops series is the most played COD series in the franchise. With the legacy of the Black Ops series and a forecast of increased in-game play as a result of engaging multiplayer content available to the players, I expect COD: BO4 to build in number off of the quantity of unit copies sold from the previous title in the series, COD: WW2. Additionally, with a strong zombies mode, solid multiplayer experience, a Battle Royale mode, and potentially free downloadable content to be released to shore up the previous three features�� consumer reception, I expect the release of COD: BO4 to increase Activision��s total net revenue.
Quantitative Method/Conclusions
As attempts to discern from management what portion of Activision��s total net revenue is comprised of per unit sales of the COD franchise and the microtransactions syndicated through the series�� in-game environments, I have applied proxy measurements of the COD related proportions of product sales and microtransactions to all-time revenue incurred through each COD iteration. This was possible, in part, by knowing the 2017 COD version��s (COD: WW2) total copies sold and current total revenue achieved thus far��the remainder of the revenue incurred is inevitably the portion of spent microtransactions and other non-product sales. I have then scaled the growth of microtransactions in COD: BO4 from its predecessor versions based on PwC��s projections of the video game micotransaction CAGR between 2012 to 2021. Subsequently, I have calculated the total all-time revenue that COD: BO4 will incur within a similar time frame to which other COD series have recorded. I have then averaged (a conservative function in this scenario) the previous COD versions�� percent of Activision��s annualized product sales as well as microtransaction revenues or revenues classified under ��total subscription, licensing, and other revenues.�� In addition, I have adjusted this figure to the product sale and microtransaction all-time revenues forecast to achieve the expected revenue incurred throughout 2018. Note: the total net revenue that has been calculated has been discounted appropriately to include the first quarter of 2019 which would place COD: BO4��s all-time sales ��time range�� of measurement similar to that of previous COD versions for effective comparison. The result of these calculations has been consummated for the lack of reported revenue broken down by each contributing video game series that Activision has and will continue to publish in further versions. The result of this analysis has forecast operating revenue growth of 21% and microtransaction growth of 24%, which would then comprise 75% of total net revenues.
Source: Author's work
General Rebuttal Responses
Again, although the purported lack of a campaign mode or COD:BO4��s current visible semblance to COD: BO3 might create some frustration within the community, the COD franchise is lauded by its multiplayer base and added Zombies and Battle Royale modes will make the newest game in the series disparate from its predecessor. The net effects of current sentiment and evidenced features, will lead to an increase in Activision��s stock as the COD franchise remains an important product to Activision��s recurring commercial and artistic success. Additionally, analysts predicting a diminution of future sales of the newly announced COD game and its base for in-COD franchise customization spending, are only distracted by the disruptive Battle Royale based game Fortnite which has cleaved at the heels of established video games predominantly in Q1 2018 but whose features will be co-opted by COD: BO4 anyways. Further dispelling a dovish belief towards COD: BO4��s commercial reception, is the observable pattern manifest in the increasing level of involvement that video gamer players will begin portioning to larger video game publishers in the ensuing months where video game conferences and expected releases of well-known video game franchises become more publicized and engaged with at large.
After the game-play reveal this past May 17th, Call of Duty: Black Ops 4 reactions have been uploaded to social media platforms where opinions were expressed blatantly and in number for one to analyze the gaming community��s sentiment and predict the direction of future per-unit purchases or micro-transaction frequencies. Regardless,
The reveal livestream broke franchise records, including the most day one views as well as the highest concurrent viewers, while also blanketing social media as the #1 trending topic on Twitter globally during the broadcast. Views from the reveal event have already surpassed 80 million, including the livestream, official trailers and content creator videos.
(Note: This will be an expansive series which will result in further articles on Activision with focus both on qualitative and quantitative analysis.)
Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.